Anti-riot police patrols seat in a truck in Nairobi May 23, 2016 during during a demonstration of opposition supporters protesting for a change of leadership ahead of a vote due next years. AFP / TONY KARUMBA
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The work of political pollsters is still widely misunderstood in Kenya, with international companies like Ipsos accused of everything from corruption to making children sick.Kenyan elections are traditionally tight but there has never been a run-off. President Mwai Kibaki won in 2007 by 232,000 votes; in 2013, Kenyatta avoided a run-off by just 8,100 votes.The latest Ipsos survey of 2,026 Kenyans, released last month, showed 48 percent supported incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta, seeking a second and final five-year term.The winner needs one vote more than 50 percent of the national total, with at least a quarter of the vote in 24 of the 47 counties.Less than half of all Kenyans said they would trust the presidential result and only 39 percent said they trust the courts.Voters' faith in pollsters has slipped globally after polls failed to predict a majority of people in Britain would vote to leave the European Union or that Donald Trump would win the presidential election in the United States.
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